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Dow Tenet #4. Indices Must Confirm Each Other

  • For a trend to be established, Dow postulated indices or market averages must confirm each other. This means that the signals that occur on one index must match or correspond with the signals on the other. If one index, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, shows a new primary uptrend, but another remains in a primary downward trend, traders should not assume that a new trend has begun

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  • Dow used the two indices that he and his partners invented, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA), on the assumption that if business conditions were healthy—as a rise in the DJIA might suggest—the railroads would be profiting from moving the freight this business activity required; thus, the DJTA would also be rising.

New Dow Theory

Instead of using the Dow Industrials and Transportation, an updated version uses the following (click on each to see the charts).  This more accurately depicts the current digital economy.  If the one on the left is rising, but the other is not, it is a "Non Confirmation" of the trend.

Dow - Tran.jpg
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